A powerful upper-level low will begin to move across the Desert SW while moisture advects northward from the gulf early Monday, setting the stage for an active day for the state of Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a slight risk for portions of SE Texas where the greatest instability will juxtapose the greatest shear. There is also a small chance for low-topped supercells and a slight risk for tornadoes close to the cold-core low–which is forecasted to be in the TX panhandle from late morning until early afternoon! Check out the LIVE streaming page as there will be multiple streamers out chasing the supercells and the blizzard!
Meanwhile, this same system is forecasted to dump as much as 2 feet of snow– with blizzard conditions expected from NE NM into SW KS late Monday/ early Tuesday morning! Above, is a map of the latest NAM model output for snow!
Bosch Auto parts is offering “Storm Chaser” fans a trip-of-a-lifetime–a chance to win an all-expenses paid trip to chase with Reed and crew! Click herefor details!
And finally, with the holiday season so close, TVN has made created this 2011 tribute video (below), dedicated to all of the 2011 storm victims. Most of us are fortunate to celebrate Christmas and share the holidays inside our own homes, but some are not as lucky. Please consider donating to the Red Cross or Habitat for Humanity this holiday season as we keep those affected in our thoughts and prayers.
Today kicked off the start of the first of several days of severe weather for the southern Plains/ MS River Valley. It began across Arkansas, where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in place for SE AR, N. LA and extreme NW MS–where an 86 mph wind gust was recorded at the Stuttgart, AR airport earlier!
More severe weather is possible, starting tomorrow afternoon/evening for portions of NW TX and SW OK. Early tomorrow, moisture will begin advecting northward where a stalled-out cold front will retreat northward, as a warm front, across Central TX. A potent shortwave will then begin to move across the slight risk area, issued by the Storm Prediction Center, and should reach NW TX and SW OK by 0z (6 p.m.). At the moment, it looks as though the cap may hold until after dark, but should convective temps be reached and stronger forcing makes its way faster, the cap could break across the area, and supercells are likely with large hail, damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes are possible. The more likely scenario is for storms to fire after dark and be ongoing throughout the night.
On Friday, an upper-level low will move across NC OK and SC KS and strong mid-level flow will rotate around it into KS down into Northern/Eastern Texas. Heavy rain and ongoing storms are possible during the morning hours, and may continue developing during the day in these areas. IMO, the best shot at tornadoes will be closer to the cold-core low where 500 mb temps will be -18 to -22 C, and a forecasted mid-level dry slot could clear out the areas–leading to extremely low-level lapse rates and strong surface vorticity, where low-topped supercells and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Further south, across southern OK and northern TX, damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats. At the very least, this system wil dump much needed rain across drought-stricken TX, OK and KS, where it will be welcomed!
TVN will be out chasing this event with, at least, D2 and possibly D1 on Friday, so be sure to follow Reed’s Facebook fan page and Twitter page for updates in real-time! And don’t forget to check both days on our LIVE streaming page where there will be numerous live video streams covering this severe weather!
Lastly, check out this hilarious Youtube video, created by Bosch, of the Dominator getting stolen!
A powerful Winter storm system currently making its way into the Ozarks and middle-Mississippi Valley region will interact with an unseasonably warm, moist Gulf airmass later this evening, prompting what is likely to be the first large-scale severe weather episode of 2012.
Forecast modelscontinue to suggest that strong, southerly wind-fields in the lowest levels of the atmosphere will readily transport this uninhibited current of Gulf moisture well into the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, allowing dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s to migrate potentially as far north as the Missouri bootheel by sunset or just thereafter; this should provide plenty of fuel for thunderstorms that are likely to develop ahead of a cold front that will sweep across Arkansas later this afternoon. Low and mid-level wind shear is very favorable for thunderstorms with sustained rotating updrafts; any storms that are able to develop along and ahead of the front will have the potential for strong, possibly long-lived tornadoes, especially, and unfortunately, after dark, as the low-level wind shear is forecast to intensify in conjunction with the arrival of the most abundant moisture from the Gulf. The possibility of a nighttime tornado event presents an especially dangerous situation for residents of central and Eastern Arkansas, west Tennessee, northern Mississippi. As always, persons in the outlined areas are strongly urged to have their severe weather plans in place, monitor local media and, above all, heed warnings when they are issued–NOAA Weather Radios with fresh batteries are a must for events such as these. Numbers of storm chasers will be in the field as well; their activities can be monitored by following ourLive Page. Stay tuned, as Reed will be providing updates as possible, from Twitter and Facebook, as the day unfolds.
After a couple of tornadoes in SE TX this week (rated EF-1, EF-0), the first significant tornado (EF-2 or greater) occurred on January 11th, near Ellenboro, NCand was rated an EF-2. Unfortunately, there were several reports of injuries, one serious, and people trapped in homes. Just a day before, in Texas City, TX, and EF-1 impacted the mall, but thankfully, no injuries were reported.
This same system, dumped over 10 inches of snow in Midland, TX where they shattered an all-time record for total snowfall in a year with over 20 inches, set in 1947! It eventually dumped snow in portions of IL, IN, WI and MI, where much needed snow was welcomed across the area. It has been an unseasonably mild winter and that looks to be the same for the next 10 days across much of the nation, thanks to a strong La Nina in place.
Chris Chittick and Dustin Feldman attended the 2012 International CES (Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas this past week, where they were exploring all of the new technology being shown off for 2012! It’s one of the largest shows Las Vegas has, where over 150,000 people were expected to attend with over 2,000 vendors! Here is a photo from their trip!